Research

Publications and Forthcoming

• "From Market Shares to Consumer Types: Duality in Differentiated Product Demand Estimation", 2012, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(2): 333-342

• "Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping", 2014, American Economic Review, 104(2): 564-608

  • Online Appendix

• “On the Non-Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Games”, 2016, with Paul T. Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol.50, 362-371 (Special Issue EARIE 2015 Munich)

• "Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of Chinese Shipbuilding", 2018, Review of Economic Studies, 85(2), 1111–1158

  • • Online Appendix

    • Featured in:   The Economist in 2014,   VoxEU,   Microeconomic Insights,   LSE Business Review,  The Washington Post, The Economist in 2023

• "A Guide to Estimating Matching Functions in Spatial Models", 2019, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou,  IJIO (Special Issue)

• "Geography, Transportation and Endogenous Trade Costs", 2020, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou,  Econometrica, 88(2),657-691

  • Recipient of the Frisch Medal (for best paper published in Econometrica in the previous four years)

  • Featured in:   QUARTZ,     Microeconomic Insights,     Econofact,     MarketWatch

  • Supplemental material

  • This paper previously circulated under the title "Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs" (NBER Working Paper 23581)

• "Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Journal of Econometrics, 222(1C), 778-804

• "Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Quantitative Economics, 20(2)

  • Award for best econometrics paper, Brazilian Econometric Society Meetings

• "The Impact of Oil Prices on World Trade", 2022, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Forthcoming, Review of International Economics

• "Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transport Markets", 2023, with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou and Nicola Rosaia, Quarterly Journal of Economics

• "Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China's Shipbuilding Industry", 2023, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Accepted, Review of Economic Studies

  • Featured in:    LSE Business Review,   VoxEU,  VoxChina,  ChinaEconTalk,  The Economist,  Cato Institute, QUARTZ,  Project Syndicate

• "Counterfactual Analysis for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2023, with Yuichi Kitamura, Lucas Lima and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Accepted, Review of Economic Studies

  • Supplemental Material

• "Industrial Policy: Lessons from Shipbuilding", 2024, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Forthcoming,  Journal of  Economic Perspectives

  • Featured in: VoxChina, VoxEU

Working Papers

• "Investment in Infrastructure and Trade: The Case of Ports", 2024, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy

  • Featured in: NBER Digest

Work in Progress

• "Port Disruptions and Inflation", with Giulia Brancaccio,  Theodore Papageorgiou, and Yixin Zhou

• "Port Congestion Pricing", with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou