Publications and Forthcoming
"From Market Shares to Consumer Types: Duality in Differentiated Product Demand Estimation", 2012, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27(2): 333-342
"Time to Build and Fluctuations in Bulk Shipping", 2014, American Economic Review, 104(2): 564-608
“On the Non-Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Games”, 2016, with Paul T. Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol.50, 362-371 (Special Issue EARIE 2015 Munich)
"Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of Chinese Shipbuilding", 2018, Review of Economic Studies, 85(2), 1111–1158
Featured in: The Economist in 2014, VoxEU, Microeconomic Insights, LSE Business Review, The Washington Post, The Economist in 2023
"A Guide to Estimating Matching Functions in Spatial Models", 2019, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, IJIO (Special Issue)
"Geography, Transportation and Endogenous Trade Costs", 2020, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Econometrica, 88(2),657-691
Recipient of the Frisch Medal (for best paper published in Econometrica in the previous four years)
Featured in: QUARTZ, Microeconomic Insights, Econofact, MarketWatch
This paper previously circulated under the title "Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs" (NBER Working Paper 23581)
"Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Journal of Econometrics, 222(1C), 778-804
"Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2020, with Paul Scott and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Quantitative Economics, 20(2)
Award for best econometrics paper, Brazilian Econometric Society Meetings
"The Impact of Oil Prices on World Trade", 2022, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Forthcoming, Review of International Economics
"Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transport Markets", 2023, with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou and Nicola Rosaia, Quarterly Journal of Economics
"Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China's Shipbuilding Industry", 2023, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Accepted, Review of Economic Studies
Featured in: LSE Business Review, VoxEU, VoxChina, ChinaEconTalk, The Economist, Cato Institute, QUARTZ, Project Syndicate
"Counterfactual Analysis for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models", 2023, with Yuichi Kitamura, Lucas Lima and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, Accepted, Review of Economic Studies
"Industrial Policy: Lessons from Shipbuilding", 2024, with Panle Jia Barwick and Nahim Zahur, Forthcoming, Journal of Economic Perspectives
Working Papers
"Investment in Infrastructure and Trade: The Case of Ports", 2024, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy
Featured in: NBER Digest
"Rigidities in Transportation and Supply Chain Disruptions", 2025, with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou, Forthcoming, AER Papers and Proceedings
Work in Progress
"Transportation Disruptions and Inflation", with Giulia Brancaccio, Theodore Papageorgiou, and Yixin Zhou
"Port Congestion Pricing", with Giulia Brancaccio and Theodore Papageorgiou